What is next for the Big 4 of tennis?

 

In 2015 we saw the domination of both Novak Djokovic and Serena Williams at grand slam level, but in men’s tennis will we finally see the ‘changing of the guard?’ Just a year ago we were talking about about the prospect of a rise of Grigor Dimitrov, Kei Nishikori and Milos Raonic, who made a rare appearance into the Top 4 of Men’s tennis several months ago. Also the surprise culmination of stand-out performances from Marin Cilic took him to US Open glory, but in 2015 we learnt that it’s still not going to be easy for any rising young star of tomorrow or anyone in the current crop of talented players like your Berdych’s, Ferrer and Tsonga to break into those Top 5 places that seem to be locked in by the members of the Big 4 and Stan Wawrinka.

In this article I really just want to touch upon the difficulties in the next breakout star to make any impression in the latter stages at grand slams with all 4 members of the Big 4 still being ever-present, even with Rafael Nadal’s dip in confidence and form in large parts of this season. Nadal finished his year incredibly well, making the final in Basel, semi-final in the World Tour Finals and played well in Shanghai also, off the top of my head. Had some good wins over Tsonga, Karlovic, Gasquet, Dimitrov, Cilic, Wawrinka and Raonic. Some really good wins for a guy that was playing with no confidence whatsoever. I think in 2016 he’ll have a very strong year, maybe just maybe enough to grab a major again but even if he doesn’t I think he could have a successful year, like Andy Murray in many respects. But the one big question is is a ‘non-major winning’ year deemed a successful season for someone as accomplished and driven as Rafael Nadal? In his mind I’d evaluate that it wasn’t, but you tennis fans can make your mind up on whether performing consistently at the highest level but not winning a major can truly be seen as a great year for a 14 time grand slam champion.

So with Nadal seemingly going through the motions and perhaps making another mini-comeback- will we see a downward turn in excellence for Novak Djokovic? I don’t think so. It’ll be tough for him to replicate what he achieved in 2015, but with that being said if one player was going to perform just as highly or even better than his best season it would be Novak Djokovic. In a Best of 5 format and with the shield of invincibility he’s created for himself over the years I’d go as far as saying he’s favourite to win the Rio Olympics and I think he’ll take home the two hard court grand slams next year too. Two grand slam victories is where I stand as far as Djokovic is concerned next year, but I also expect a similar year at Masters 1000 level where he pretty much dominated the whole field.

It’s a testament to Roger Federer that he’s now 34 years old and still finds himself in the competitive picture and as a contender to still win grand slams. Edberg rejuvenated his career to a certain extent, gave him a new lease of life after a disappointing season, losing to Stakhovsky at Wimbledon, Delbonis and Brands in Hamburg and Gstaad and I think Edberg should take some but not all the credit for extending an already meticulous career of one of the true tennis greats. I don’t think he’ll win a major this year BUT the added incentive of the Rio Olympics really does make the Big 4 race for the big time titles even more enticing. Davis Cup will suffer immensely next year with the addition of the Olympics in the schedule, no way does Federer, Murray or Djokovic play Davis Cup Quarter-Finals if they get there. I’m almost certain of that.
Federer’s refined his schedule next year, which not only earmarks the stage he’s at in his career but also emphasizes the importance of Rio next year. He’ll contend for that elusive gold but I still see Djokovic winning that, it’ll be one of the Serb’s priorities and at 29 next year he really doesn’t have many more chances to medal. Also when you factor that Djokovic plays a game that embarks on physical prowess that demands an awful lot out of his body it still remains to be seen whether he’ll be winning 2/3 majors a season in 4 years from now. That’ll be another question to ask you a tennis fans, can Djokovic keep up this tennis dominance 4 years from now?

Lastly, Murray is another factor who I think will have another good season. I think him and Djokovic will contest the Australian Open final again this year, but from February onwards it’ll be the first time Murray plays as a top athlete with other big commitments with the birth of his first child. We’ve seen Federer handle it immensely and Djokovic as well but Murray said himself that perhaps his drive might not be the same once the child is born. That’ll be a great talking point. But when you take an eagle-eyed view on what Murray’s achieved US Open, Wimbledon, Olympic Gold and now Davis Cup, it really does show that he can go out all guns blazing in Melbourne in a tournament he’s performed really well in in the past. I’m sure he’d want to do well at the Olympics again and particularly Wimbledon, but I can see Andy prioritizing the Australian Open at the start of the year before his life becomes even more hectic.

Hope you enjoyed reading and have a very good Christmas x

 

@jakedavi5’s 2016 tennis predictions

2016 promises a lot when it comes to the tennis season, will we have major’s dominated on either side of the tours or will the next season provide some surprise first time winners? I’ll try to cover that in my 3rd ever year end predictions article for my blog.

The first prediction I’m going to make lies with Russian star of tomorrow Margarita Gasparyan. I’ve already publicly announced my love for this player’s game in previous blog posts and through my Twitter posts but I do seriously think she’s going to have a breakout year next season. She’s lingering outside the Top 60 with a maiden title in Baku and an arrival on to the main stage against Serena at Wimbledon were two stand out moments in this Russian’s career so far. I can see Gasparyan making R4 of a major next year, she’s yet to tally a win at slam level as it stands, but she’s a talented player that should rise eventually. While trying not to sound crazy I’ve written down that she’ll make Top 23 next year, maybe even just drifting into the Top 20 mark. The main reasoning behind me thinking she’ll rise this far is her mentality, she doesn’t hold back on her shots and that one handed backhand on it’s day can do as much damage as Carla Suarez-Navarro’s single hander. So Margarita Gasparyan Top 20 or higher next season.

My next prediction is that Novak dominates the 3 HC honours next season. I think he’ll be untouchable in Australia, and will win the US Open and get that Olympic singles gold on the hard court in Rio. Although I do think that he won’t win either of the summer grand slams. He won’t be as formidable as he was this year but winning an additional 2 slams AND Olympic gold would still be a successful year even without Roland Garros in my eyes. So Novak to win 2 slams AND Rio Olympics.

If I was going to pick a first time grand slam winner next season on the women’s side I’d go with either Muguruza or Keys. I’ve said in the off season while watching IPTL that I’m confident that Garbine will get her first singles major next year but I’m not entirely sure where it’ll come in. She’s virtually had good results and/or performances in all 4 slams. Many point to the Serena win in Roland Garros and her final performance in Wimbledon but she’s posted some really good results at the Australian Open too. One of the first matches I’d seen of Garbine was in fact against Serena in 2012 AO, which she was never going to win but looked good. I think Garbine will be a first time winner but I can see Keys making a slam final next year, maybe or maybe not winning but I think she could hit a good patch in a few consecutive matches and find herself in a really good position. In many respects I think she missed an opportunity at Wimbledon this year, a Keys-Muguruza semi-final could have been anyone’s match to win. So I’m going Keys as maybe being a slam finalist for the first time in her career and oddly enough I’m predicting it’ll be at Wimbledon, despite the fact she loathed grass in her earlier days as a pro.

There won’t be a first time slam winner on the Men’s side. After the US Open 2012 final many tennis fans predicted a Murray-Djokovic domination in the next year of slams, which didn’t quite materialize, I think we could get something similar to that next year when you factor the Masters events too. I can see Murray-Novak making the AO Final again in January but like I said I vision Djokovic winning 2 slams and maybe if Murray finds some form at the right time he may knick a slam too. But I still don’t see there being a first time winner like we will see in the women’s.

My next risky pick is for Berdych to drop outside of the Top 10 at some point in the coming season.

Taylor Fritz to make it inside the ATP Top 80 next season and finish inside the Top 50

Lastly keep an eye on my favourite player Cagla Buyukakcay who’s had a wonderful end to her 2015 season. In touching distance of a Top 120 place in the WTA Rankings and is a good enough player to regularly feature at slam level. So I’m crossing all fingers and toes for her next year.